Everyone would love a 10-second knockout or a quick submission, but that’s not often how these things go, especially not at the championship level. Instead, it’s usually the competitor that has crafted the better game plan and did the better job of executing things inside the Octagon that comes away with their hand raised and the gold around their waist.
So, how does either man get it done on Saturday night?
Nicksick: For me, Izzy really needs to utilize his kicks because that will help nullify some of Pereira’s power.
Depending on what weapon he feels is going to be his biggest attribute —if it’s his left hook, then it’s Izzy throwing the right high kick to slow that hook down. If it’s the straight right, then Izzy needs to use the left head kick. It will slow him down and keep him honest in a lot of ways.
Using that length with the teeps, the calf kicks, the low kicks —I don’t think we’re going to see Pereira coming in looking to use any grappling, but I think Izzy’s full skill set should be available to him, including the kick game. That should be a layer of insulation between him and Pereira’s hands.
Marshall: I still think Izzy gets it done on the feet. I think he gets it done on the feet and the difference between this fight and their other two is just the output level that you have to have with kickboxing. The output in MMA is much different, and I think that changes the dynamic of the fight.
Because Pereira is going to be thinking, “Is he going to try to take me down?” you can’t just strike, and when you can’t just strike, it changes the game.
Nicksick: The main thing that he’s really going to have to do is find smart ways to cut the cage off and try to put Izzy in the flat part of the panel and guide him into the two corner posts by eliminating some of Izzy’s 45-degree backwards movement or his straight backs. It gives him only perpendicular movements to the right or the left.
When you allow him to go on 45-degree angles, that’s where his best offense is —he has that sniper ability off of half-beat pulls — so for Pereira, I think he really needs to get this guy backed up to the barrier and eliminate backwards and 45-degree movements. If you cut the door off on either side and say, “Hey —here’s your exit,” you know which way he’s going to go, and it’s either move that way or he has to shoot.
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So you either make him panic wrestle from there or you shut the door, show him the exit, and that’s when you can set up some of those power shots and try to take his head off. I think it’s going to be very, very important for Pereira to eliminate some of the movement by backing him up to the barrier.
Marshall: He’s going to try to knock him out, for sure. The more it looks like Muay Thai, the more it favors Pereira. The more it looks like MMA, the more it favors Izzy.
Alex Pereira of Brazil reacts after his knockout victory over Andreas Michailidis of Greece in their middleweight fight during the UFC 268 event at Madison Square Garden on November 06, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
X Factor
If there were one thing that was going to significantly impact how this fight plays out —that swings it in one direction or the other — what would it be?
Nicksick: OOOOH —it’s gotta be their history! It’s gotta be! I don’t think there is any way around it because you’re looking at a guy with an ego —and Izzy should have an ego! He’s confident more than he is co*cky, but I think it irks him that this guy is the Boogeyman that’s coming to get him.
Izzy hasn’t lost in the UFC other than to Jan up a division — he’s perfect in his division —and so this is almost a tailor-made backstory that the UFC was able to build up, and this guy is here now.
I think the build-up and hype around this fight is the X factor.
Marshall: Mentally, I think it’s going to be a very, very interesting thing here because Pereira has beaten him twice. It’s a different sport and we can talk about those differences if you’d like, but mentally, is Pereira just banking on that? Has Izzy dealt with that mentally? There are some really big mental questions that I believe will get answered in the fight.
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It’s that mental piece and the differences between MMA and kickboxing that are the X factors in this fight.
One Coaching Curiosity
Coaches see the sport differently and look at the sport differently than anyone else, picking up on different things and paying attention to movements, habits, or intangible pieces that others might not notice, but that could have a significant impact on the action inside the Octagon.
Every matchup offers its own unique collection of elements that might pique a coach’s interest and get them paying a little closer attention to once the fight gets underway.
